Kentucky Oaks: Betting The Ponies

Kentucky Oaks

Folks break out the seersucker and get ready to pound some mint juleps it’s Derby Weekend. I have some picks for the Kentucky Oaks this Friday to get us started. Whether you’re an experienced gambler or just someone who casually watches the Triple Crown, I have some good value picks and break down I think you’re gonna want, so lock-in.

Race 4

Going to get the day started in race 4 with the 6 horse in here, Ocean Breeze. Coming off a nice runner up the Audubon Stakes where she had to chase a freak in “Mundaye Call” who we will see this weekend in the Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes. The reason I really like her in this spot is the speed she will have to run at in front of her. The 2,3, and the 8 all have speed. With that being said I expect these 3 horses to wear each other out on the front end which will allow “Ocean Breeze” to pick the pieces up late.

Ocean Breeze to win 2-1 Morning Line  #6 the pick.

Race 6

Unlike race 4, there isn’t much speed signed on here. Which makes me think this race can be won on the front end. On paper, #8 “Strike That” seems like the horse to catch up front. He is very sharp right now coming off of a nice win at Saratoga where he went gate to wire just like I think he will do here. Really think this horse can go wire to wire. Strike That gets the lead early and doesn’t look back.

Strike That to win 3-1ML  #8 gets it done.

Race 7

I have been a huge fan of “Flabbergasted” throughout her entire career so far. I finally think she is starting to figure things out. Also, you have to love the fact they gave her a little breather following her huge maiden win back in June. I think this filly is coming into this race very fresh and I think she will take another step forward. She has lots of room for improvement. This filly has talent.

Flabbergasted to win 4-1  ML #6 the pick.

Race 8

Here is the filly I mentioned earlier. “Mundaye Call”. She is the goods.  She is freaky fast. Drawn to the inside I think she goes and they run her off their feet. This horse has grade 1 talent and not many people know about her yet. She will be a short price but I think anything above even money is a good price. After Friday, she will be known all throughout the country.

Mundaye Call 6/5 BET BIG

Race 9

I am going to go to the rail runner here and hope Miguel Mena can wire this field. “In Good Spirits” will be the pick here at a decent 5-1 price. The big favorite here will be “Sharing” who is making her first start since her trip overseas. I am going to take a stand vs “Sharing” based on the fact she has traveled so many miles. Sometimes this can be taxing for fillies.  In Good Spirits has shown she has some ability. She ran vs sharing back in May but that day she was coming off a long layoff. This time she will be fresh and more fit to hang on for the victory.

In Good Spirits to win 5-1 ML

Race 10

I am going to beat Baffert here. I think he will take an absurd amount of money from the public just based on his name. Give me By My Standards here. I love this horse in this spot at Kentucky Oaks. He drew a great post where he can stalk and pounce. He showed us that he is one of the top handicap dirt horses in America with his big Oaklawn Handicap win. I think McKenzie will be way overbet due to his trainer. By My Standards is the best horse in this race.

By My Standards BET BIG.

The Kentucky Oaks

All the talk going into this thing will be about the showdown between Gamine and Swiss Skydiver. The thing is, neither of them are going to win. “Speech” is going to spoil the party here in a big way. This filly is just as good as these two. Gamine has her distance questions. Can she get the mile and a 1/8? I don’t think so, I think she will be better going shorter. Swiss Skydiver on the other hand I feel is a worn-down filly. She has run so hard the last 3 months, I don’t think she has anything left in the tank. “Speech” is the fresh filly in here who doesn’t have distance limitations and has been waiting for this race resting in her stall. She pulls off the upset here and gets it done.


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